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The Big Picture: A Vision For Social Media

Imagine a world in which:

every single human being is posting their thoughts and experiences in any number of ways to the Internet.

This is the world that New York-based VC, Fred Wilson, sees within his ‘grand vision‘ for social media.

I applaud Fred’s simplicity. All too often the bigger picture can become obscured by over complication. If we take a look through his firm’s portfolio, we quickly see that he is pulling together a mosaic that will progress us towards achieving his vision:

Twitter - microblogging

Disqus - distributed comments

Oddcast - conversational chararacters

Tumblr - microblogging

Zynga - social gaming

There are a bunch of other companies in the Union Square Ventures portfolio, but these are the stand out ventures that speak to Fred’s simple vision.

Turning this vision into reality will take a lot more determined effort by all of us. Besides supporting the right technology pieces, achieving standards (think what Gears is doing for HTML5), and gaining wide user traction there are regulatory and plumbing issues that will need to be solved.

Currently we see a lot of infighting and an almost continuous bitchmeme, at present this seems to be over whether Friendfeed is better than Twitter. And this within the context of a world in which millions are unable to express themselves, a world in which millions are dying because of oppressive regimes.

It is high time the social media industry rallied together. By focusing on this simple end goal, by setting a target we can come together around, we can achieve so much more.

[Picture courtesy of hellomartin]

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Churchill Club: Dialling In The Top Tech Trends

The mobile phone dominated the panel’s predictions for the annual Churchill Club’s poke at the Top 10 Tech Trends.

Vinod Khosla sees the cell phone becoming a mainstream personal computer. This trend is already heavily under way towards becoming a reality in the more advanced Asian countries.

In similar vein, Roger McNamee sees mobiles moving from being feature phones to smart phones at an accelerating pace due to the rise of real software environments layered on the network and separate from the physical devices.

Josh Kopelman believes we are headed towards an implicit Internet. Eric Savitz summarizes this discussion:

Today your permanent record exists; you create a trail of data exhaust, digital bread crumbs. Implicit data that exists in silence. Movie rentals, restaurant reservations, books purchased, Web sites visited, etc. All of this data existed in silence. No easy way until now to benefit from the data; but the silos are coming down. Google, Yahoo, Facebook, Mozilla collecting data. Trend is that big wave will come to companies that are able to novel and new ways to deliver information by crossing these silos, with implicit data on the Internet. Use social networking data to improve search. Conversion of data exhaust will create value in new and interesting ways. All of the panelists seem to agree that this is a key trend. McNamee says he hopes Kopelman is not right, given the privacy concerns that are involved. The issue is providing implied consent to follow the bread crumbs, McNamee says. Schoendorf says this is an under 25 issue. McNamee notes that the trouble is that not only does Facebook know what I’m doing, but the Chinese government also knows. Khosla says it is an opportunity, not a problem. “Privacy is a red herring,” Khosla says. “There are rules and laws and ways to address the privacy issue.” Data reduction is an important need, Khosla says. He has a secretary to do it. Khosla says it is a critical need and huge opportunity.

Let’s mash these views up a bit: the post Churchill Club, metarand top tech trend is that a rise of the implicit Internet will not be restricted from a device point of view.

We will see a tipping point in this respect both in terms of device access shifting to the mobile and also going beyond simple mobile browsing to embedded solutions.

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Web 2.i - It’s Time To Enter Beta

April 27th, 2008 | No Comments | Posted in Attention, Future, Innovation, Mobile, Presence, Social Media, Web

Elias Bizannes has written a post about the Web 2.0 era and what’s next. His post is titled It’s all still alpha in my eyes, and he’s issued a call out to get metarand’s views.

First up, I’d say it is high time we realized that Web 2.0 has entered beta - as Elias points out and as we saw at the recent Web 2.0 Expo, big business has entered the space - big time.

Secondly, I’d like to postulate that this beta version of the web should be called Web 2.i. Here’s why I’m adding the “i”:

* iPhone: I agree with Elias that the mobile web will be a big part of this next phase, that is, the mobile web as defined by the iPhone. This device has created a ripple that will radically alter the mobile pond;

* meshed data/presence: The “i” in dataportability will coalesce with the “i” in presence (go with me on this) to create a far more integrated individual web experience.

In short, I agree with the twitterquote from Dave Winer in Elias’s post: Web 2.0 is now over.

It’s time for Web 2.i…

[Pictures courtesy of bwr, saufnase]

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Microsoft Provides Mesh for Apps/Data, But Fails On Interoperability

I’ve covered DataPortability. I’m experimenting with Friendfeed. I share apps across my Macbook Pro and iPhone.

However, I still feel there is a long way to go before we reach true seamless interoperability of data, connections, applications and devices.

And so I am very excited by Microsoft’s preview beta launch of Live Mesh, a feed-centric programming model.

The promise is that:

Live Mesh puts you at the center of your digital world, seamlessly connecting you to the people, devices, programs, and information you care about - available wherever you happen to be.

That is a very noble sentiment. I applaud Ray Ozzie’s vision.

But wait a minute - this only works on devices running Microsoft software. I fully understand that they are only at beta. I also hear their plaintive cry, but we are bringing out Mac and mobile versions later this year.

Fail. They should have built in true interoperability from the get go, across all devices - period. Doing so in stages can only lead to a Here, there, everywhere patchwork.

UPDATE: Former Microsoftie Robert Scoble has gushed his views out. Yes I also like the dialogic RSS capability, by Robert you sum up why its a fail before its even out of the blocks:

Mac support? Coming in the future. Nokia support? Unclear. iPhone support? Ask Steve Jobs (translation: will be very limited due to Apple’s complete control of that platform). Firefox support? Yes! Linux support? What’s that?

[Via TechCrunch]

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Top Bloggers Blindsided By China

April 21st, 2008 | No Comments | Posted in Blogging, Future, Web

The tech blogging community had its self-congratulatory blinkers on today courtesy of a TechCrunch-created list of top bloggers. Not surprisingly, TechCrunch’s loudest voice, Michael Arrington topped the list. In fact 3 of the top 4 on the list were from TechCrunch…surely a highly credible compilation.

In the meantime China took the baton from the USA as the country with the most Internet users. Perhaps the numbers should be discounted to take into account China’s censorship. For example, every 2 censored Internet users equate to 1 free Internet user.

What is interesting to note, though, is that the 220 million users only make up 17% of the population of China. In contrast, America’s 216 million users constitute 71% of the population.

This means that we can expect to see many more users coming online in China in the next few years.

[Photo courtesy of hk_traveller]

Mobile GPS as standard - privacy versus safety

Your choice - lose your loved one or your privacy.

South Korea is looking into equipping new mobile phones with a chip that will allow users to be located via satellite-based positioning technology.

The argument being put forward in a bill before their National Assembly is that this move will assist in reducing kidnapping and other increasingly violent crimes against women and children.

I know there is the slippery slope argument of benevolent versus big brother government and in no other region of the world is this better illustrated - South Korea doing this versus North Korea ….shudder.

However, where we have the technology to eradicate location-based crimes this, to me, far outweighs privacy issues.

DNA tracking would be optimal - this is not that far off.

[via China View]

Nokia Morph’s Way Beyond iPhone

February 25th, 2008 | No Comments | Posted in Future, Gadgets, Mobile

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I remember when the Apple iPhone came out. I had a deep sense that there was no way I’d buy a normal mobile phone ever again. I also started thinking: what comes next? Well it looks like I’ve found the answer over at Nokia HQ.

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In fact, if you are in New York you can go along and see the future of mobile phones right now at The Museum of Modern Art. Nokia Research Centre and the University of Cambridge’s Nanoscience Centre have launched Morph, a joint nanotech concept -

Morph is a concept that demonstrates how future mobile devices might be stretchable and flexible, allowing the user to transform their mobile device into radically different shapes. It demonstrates the ultimate functionality that nanotechnology might be capable of delivering: flexible materials, transparent electronics and self-cleaning surfaces.

Dr. Bob Iannucci, Chief Technology Officer, Nokia, commenting at the launch, said: “Nokia Research Center is looking at ways to reinvent the form and function of mobile devices; the Morph concept shows what might be possible.”

Don’t hold your breathe, though - elements of Morph may only find their way into handheld devices by 2015.

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An open letter to the new Australian Government on creating an Innovation Future

November 25th, 2007 | 2 Comments | Posted in Australia, Entrepreneurship, Future, Innovation, X PRIZE

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Firstly let me congratulate Kevin Rudd and his campaign team on their victory and welcome them as the government of this fine country, Australia.

As someone who has been in the innovation trenches for the past decade, I am enthused by Senator Kim Carr’s election message regarding creating “An innovation future for Australian industry”.

The purpose of this open letter is to highlight the initiatives set out in Senator Carr’s statement and give my considered views on what can be done to ensure the new government is able to maximise its impact in this area.

I totally agree with the opening statements put forward by Senator Carr that innovation is a key driver of productivity and economic growth. Yes, rolled out correctly, it can both drive the creation of new businesses and sectors and revitalise existing industries.

In terms of new businesses and sectors I support the focus in the paper on leveraging Australia’s depth of knowledge in clean technologies. Not only can we become world leaders in this arena, but we also stand the most to gain by getting it right. Imagine if you will, a terraformed Australian outback acting as the world’s lung and providing a purpose built, rich source of biodiversity.

In addition, there are two industries that can benefit greatly from an innovation boost. Firstly, as identified in the paper, the manufacturing industry which has long been languishing – think of a revitalisation across the current South Australian/Victorian rust belt as a hub for advanced manufacturing and nanotechnology and what this would do for the people’s of these areas as well as for the economy.

Secondly, Australia has been on the cusp of having a world leading games industry for many years. With a boost and some refocusing we are well set to produce global best practice in the broader gaming and virtual worlds arena – an industry that is set to boom over the next decade and one which many multinationals and countries are taking very seriously.

The paper states that Labor will.

Writing down notes on the paper, I incuded in my wishlist the appointment of a high profile Innovation Ambassador, only to turn the page and find that, after stating that Labor will build a culture of innovation and a national innovation system, Senator Carr had already thought along similar lines.

From my point of view the role of Innovation Ambassador should be a position from which to attract into Australia key entrepreneurial talent, tier one venture capital firms and multinational research undertakings.

The ambassador should also be tasked with connecting Australian business to new global technology in such a way as to incentivise rapid take up of innovations from around the world and position Australian business as thought leaders.

The paper makes the point that an innovative, creative economy requires a wide range of people interacting. One of my key criticisms of how innovation has been supported to date in Australia is the lack of recognition that there are other cogs in the wheel than just researchers. Without support for the entrepreneurs and business builders who take new inventions and productise them many potential products never get to market. It is heartening to see that Labor is cognisant of this.

The paper further supports the creation of a stronger research sector. Widening the ambit beyond scientific and technological disciplines into the social arena is a good move. Many of the most lucrative and disruptive products on the market today have emerged from the social media space. Think  Google, Youtube, Facebook and many others. In Australia we have the capabilities to produce similar products and companies.

Senator Carr calls for the replacement of the Research Quality Framework with a metrics-based research quality assurance system. It is expected this will cause the incumbent research institutes to lift their game and get rid of non impact producing research projects. Impact here being measured in means other than short term commercialisation or academic papers.

The paper talks about revitalising CSIRO and removing the barriers to the CRCs working efficiently. It is my supposition that the new Federal Department of Innovation should also look more closely at international models that have worked exceptionally well in producing both long term economic growth coupled with industry engagement. There are a number of examples, such as the Belgian research institute IMEC, that should be added into the mix.

An interesting approach mentioned in the paper is forming a coalition amongst smaller nations to maximise Australia’s innovation impact. Many countries, including the four mentioned (Chile, Ireland, South Africa and South Korea) have aspirations to become strong innovation centres, but not many have succeeded individually. Australia could benefit immensely from being more closely aligned with Ireland and we have many similarities with South Africa in areas like clean technology and communications.

It is heartening to hear of Labor’s recognition of a key stumbling block – high speed broadband and the lack thereof in Australia. We should be benchmarking ourselves against South Korea in this respect and aiming for an even more pervasive and faster network than they have in place. Forming a coalition that included South Korea, would greatly assist us achieving this.

It is promising that the new Federal government aims to work with the States to produce a consolidated innovation system. By focusing more on the customer of such a system, rather than satisfying bureaucratic instincts will ensure we have a system in place that is a significant improvement. Similarly, the creation of a unified Federal department charged with overseeing innovation, industry, science and research will greatly reduce fragmentation, doubling up and lack of transparency.

For example, the paper mentions reducing the red tape and streamlining the Commercial Ready program. Let entrepreneurs build, let innovators invent and the nation can only benefit.

Bringing innovation stakeholders together to bridge the divide between business and research is an excellent idea.

However, there will need to be incentives in place for them to do so. Blindly funding basic research and rewarding researchers for paying lip service to engaging with industry has been a core failure of the innovation system to date. The proposed Researchers in Business internship project is an excellent way to create more industry awareness amongst the nation’s academics.

Up until now much of the commercialisation funding has been provided in an ad hoc, shotgun style approach. One of the best initiatives announced in the paper is the establishment of a Climate Ready program as part of the new, improved Commercial Ready program. This intentional focus on core areas such as clean technologies is an excellent way to ensure the funding provided produces meaningful results.

Similarly the focus on a Clean Energy Innovation Centre and an Energy Innovation Fund will be well received.

I submit though that Senator Carr should also be looking to new ways of incentivising the creation of breakthrough products. I refer in this regard to the model pioneered by the X Prize Foundation. Australia has a fantastic opportunity to choose various breakthrough challenges and open the playing field to anyone to achieve the goals set and win the prizes being put up. This approach would markedly improve the achievement of results from innovation funding and can kickstart whole new industries.

I have been banging on for a while about the failure of the innovation ecosystem and the need for us to think as a nation about life beyond the mining boom. The creation of an Australia 2.0-capable innovation system appears apparent through many of the initiatives mentioned in Senator Carr’s paper.

The cynical amongst us will almost certainly point out that this paper was released as part of an electoral campaign and therefore we should discount the rhetoric in it. However, I am confident that the sheer depth of thinking in the paper, coupled with hard work and focus from all of us in bringing it to fruition will be a journey worthwhile embarking on.

Customers First - the key to flying high

October 18th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in Future, Travel

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Richard Branson says it’s a brilliant time to be in the air travel business provided you put your customers first. He was talking in a NY Times Freakonomics piece about the future of US air travel.

While many of the other folks who commented seemed to bang on about the status quo, Richard put forward a clear case for a differentiated approach based on improving air travel for the people that matter: travellers.

Noting the cause and effect of happy staff flowing on to customers, Gary Topping of Topping Travel also made the following point: maybe an enlightened US airline CEO will see through the fog of the bean counters and realize that “happy employees” also make happy (and dedicated) customers.

Gotta love those bean counters!

Jack Uldrich picks up on the conversation and offers a balance of on the cards improvements based on technology already under development (in labs around the world) and a few more off the map ideas — where’s my Moller flying car, I ordered it last decade!

[Picture courtesy of ferrous]

What’s your Asia Pacific strategy?

August 29th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in Asia Pacific, Future, Innovation, Strategy

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Pictures speak volumes. Does your business have an Asia Pacific strategy?

If so, great, accept one silver star. Next question: when last did you update it? Frontiers morph and shift at lightning pace - ask anyone who faced down a gunslinger in the old West….you gotta move fast or get out of the way.

[Diagrams extracted from Golin Harris's Next 50 Years]

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