I’ve come up with four trendlines that I believe will significantly play out over the next ten years:
1. Post geographical means something
Borders may still matter (to politicians and politburos), but for the socially connected they will diminish in meaning. Collective ‘citizen power’ will grow exponentially in response to even crazier governmental crack downs on increased ‘wikileak-like’ transparency, the growing failure of infrastructure (hello heathrow) and wilder weather (increased chaos).
2. Augmented reality becomes, simply, reality
The current AR-hype will give way to pervasive augmentation via less articificial means than pointing your iPhone at something and hoping it translates (aka Wordlens). Reality will become more real, more information-rich through ‘it simply works’ means. Think of search pre-Google, and you’ll get it.
3. Social commerce grows up, vertically
The current group(on) collective buying mania will not settle down into its current all things to all people groove. Expect it to mature, vertically into specialist areas manned by experts in various domains who can ensure there are no daily deal overruns.
4. Transport electrifies
21 million electric bicycles were sold in China last year. This is a space that will grow rapidly in the years ahead. Our post geographical citizen power will flex its muscle to ensure infrastructure is altered to cater for silent, economical and environmentally-sound travel.